Trade value up by about 22% in the first quarter of 2011

The value of world merchandise trade was 22% higher in the first quarter of 2011 compared to the same period of 2010, according to WTO figures released on 1 June 2011.

These short-term “value” figures should not be confused with the annual trade growth figures headlined in the 7 April 2011 press release, which are “volume” data using “constant dollars” with inflation taken into account.

Moreover, WTO short-term merchandise trade values are not seasonally adjusted. Seasonal patterns therefore considerably affect the quarter on quarter (Q-o-Q) and month on month (M-o-M) developments in world trade, and this in turn affects comparisons between the trade developments in individual regions and economies.

Chart 1: World merchandise exports, first quarter 2008 to first quarter 2011 (Trillion dollars)

Available monthly statistics for about 70 economies representing more than 90% of world trade show that merchandise trade rose sharply in March 2011, reflecting in good part seasonal variations. The value of trade reached for the first time a level superior to the pre-crisis maximum of July 2008.

Chart 2: Monthly merchandise trade 2008-2011, aggregate of 70 economies a (Trillion dollars)

a Imports are valued cif (cost, insurance and freight included) while exports are fob (free on board).

Overview of regional trade flows

Table 1: World merchandise trade by region and selected economies, January-March 2011

Percentage change in current US dollars, year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter

a Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-exports.

b “Intra EU” is trade within the EU; “extra EU” is trade between the EU and non-EU economies

c Hong Kong, China (excluding re-export trade), Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Chinese Taipei, and Thailand

Chart 3: Commodity price developments, first quarter 2011 (Percentage change)

1 June 2011

Source: IMF