US tariffs still have many variables

The US's 15% global tariff following the Supreme Court ruling has raised new concerns, causing Asian economies to continue cautiously awaiting a response.

The US decision to impose a 15% global tariff has created new uncertainty for Asian economies , which had spent months securing lower tariffs by making trade and investment concessions to the US.

Analysts believe the US announcement on February 21st could ease pressure on most Asian economies, such as India, Malaysia, and Thailand, which are subject to reciprocal tariffs ranging from 19% to 41%. These tariffs have been in effect since August.

In a social media post, US President Donald Trump said that the administration would soon impose new tariffs to continue the process of making America great again.

The announcement came a day after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the president's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify "reciprocal tariffs" was unconstitutional.

Analysts say this raises questions about the validity of bilateral agreements – some of which include commitments to eliminate or reduce tariffs on certain U.S. goods, as well as commitments to buy U.S. energy and aircraft in exchange for lower tariffs – that have been signed between the U.S. and individual Asian economies.

The Supreme Court ruling also did not clarify whether the tariffs collected under the controversial policy would be refunded. Mustafa Izzuddin, an international analyst at Solaris Strategies Singapore, said the latest tariff move reflects the US government 's tendency toward "unilateral economic deals."

James Chin, a professor of Asian studies at the University of Tasmania in Australia, argues that most Asian economies are adopting a wait-and-see approach because the US tariffs have long been factored into their policy plans. However, some private export companies may seek to reclaim tax refunds from the US, as the tariffs have been declared unconstitutional.

According to Malaysian private equity investor Ian Yoong Kah Yin, the US tariff announcement acted as a catalyst for stock markets in most Asian economies, particularly Southeast Asia, as they had already been subject to tariffs exceeding 15%. Singapore was the exception, with a 10% tariff, he said.

Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia- Pacific at the French investment bank Natixis, said: "The best-case scenario is no increase (in US tariffs)."

Chin Yew Sin, President of the Asia-Pacific Strategic Research Centre in Kuala Lumpur, noted that the overall situation remains highly uncertain.

He cited Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the U.S. President to impose temporary import surcharges of up to 15% or quotas for a period not exceeding 150 days, after which approval by the U.S. Congress is required.

"Therefore, (the 15% tariff) is only a temporary measure. It could still change after 150 days. The situation remains uncertain for the global economy," he said.

Source: VTV