Why did China halve its imports of Canadian lobster and double its purchases from Viet Nam?

In 2025, China will double its purchases of Vietnamese lobster compared to the previous year, while simultaneously halving imports from Canada – a country that typically accounts for 40-50% of its lobster imports.

According to the Viet Nam Association of Seafood Processing and Export ( VASEP ), 2025 marks a significant milestone for the Chinese lobster market as total imports reach record levels and the supply structure undergoes a dramatic shift.

A remarkable breakthrough year for Vietnamese lobster in China.

According to data from China's General Administration of Customs, China's lobster imports in 2025 are projected to reach nearly 70,000 tons, an increase of almost 10,000 tons compared to 2024.

However, the map of lobster supply to the Chinese market changed rapidly in just one year.

In 2024, Canada was the number one supplier with nearly 27,000 tons, accounting for about 44% of total imports, while Viet Nam ranked second with nearly 11,000 tons (about 18%).

By 2025, the situation will reverse as Viet Nam overtakes Canada to become the number one supplier to China with over 24,000 tons, accounting for approximately 34%.

Meanwhile, Canada's exports fell to just over 15,000 tons (approximately 22%), the US reached nearly 10,000 tons (approximately 14%), and Australia surged to nearly 7,000 tons (approximately 10%).

Explaining the shift in China's imports, VASEP stated that the reason is China's tariff policy on Canadian goods.

Accordingly, China has imposed a 25% tariff on many Canadian seafood products, including lobster, effective from March 20, 2025.

When Canada faces a tax disadvantage, the Chinese seek alternative sources that optimize both price and delivery quality, and Viet Nam has a clear advantage in terms of proximity, fast delivery times, and flexible shipment options, making it suitable for perishable/fresh produce.

As a result, 2025 will be a particularly breakthrough year for Vietnamese lobster in the Chinese market. The total value of Vietnamese lobster exports to China and Hong Kong will reach US$1.3 billion, a 55% increase compared to 2024.

Within that structure, the blue lobster is the outstanding "driver" with export revenue reaching $840 million in 2025, a 131% increase compared to 2024.

Vietnamese businesses need to maintain quality and optimize logistics.

For 2026, VASEP reported that in January, Viet Nam's exports of green lobsters to China and Hong Kong reached approximately US$100 million, a 6% increase compared to January 2025. This figure indicates that consumption remains strong at the beginning of 2026.

However, if the 25% tariff on Canadian lobster is officially removed from March 2026, the competitive landscape in China could change rapidly.

Canada is motivated to regain market share in the high-end restaurant and gift channels, while Australia continues to consolidate its presence following the resumption of trade.

Given the potential for diversification of Chinese consumer behavior due to changes in trade policies, Vietnamese businesses wishing to maintain momentum need to follow the right market direction: stable quality, standardized specifications, optimized logistics for fresh produce, and increased direct connections with modern distribution networks.

"2025 shows that China is ready to buy lobsters heavily as demand in the high-end segment recovers. But 2026 will be a test of resilience; whoever maintains quality, delivery speed, and the ability to stay within distribution channels will be the one to retain market share when Canada returns to the game and competition in the high-end segment becomes more intense," VASEP commented.

Source: The Youth Online