Viet Nam's goal of achieving double-digit economic growth in the 2026-2030 period faces numerous challenges, but with clear political determination and decisive implementation by the entire political system, Viet Nam has every opportunity to turn challenges into opportunities.

In fact, the steadfast commitment to this goal has been clearly demonstrated in the guiding principles. On April 2nd, General Secretary To Lam signed and issued Conclusion No. 18-KL/TW of the 2nd Conference of the Central Committee of the 14th Party Congress on the Plan for socio-economic development, national finance and public borrowing and repayment, and medium-term public investment for the 5 years 2026-2030, linked to achieving the goal of "double-digit" growth.

Conclusion No. 18-KL/TW clearly states: We are determined to successfully implement the Resolution of the 14th National Congress of the Party, and the resolutions and conclusions of the Central Committee, the Politburo , and the Secretariat, striving to achieve double-digit growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring major economic balances. We will remain steadfast in our goals, act decisively and effectively; closely assess the situation, and flexibly implement solutions to overcome the difficulties of 2026 and achieve breakthroughs in the 2027-2030 period.

Speaking at his inauguration ceremony, Prime Minister Le Minh Hung emphasized: "We are determined to make the utmost effort to manage the economy to achieve high and sustainable growth rates. The target of an average GDP growth rate of over 10% per year during the 2026-2031 period is a development imperative to realize the country's strategic goals."

GDP in the first quarter of 2026 reached 7.83%, recording an impressive growth rate compared to the same period in 2025 (7.07%). This result creates a solid foundation for the development target for the whole year of 2026 amidst a global context of many intertwined changes, especially the tensions and conflicts in the Middle East. According to the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance), to compensate for the shortfall in the first quarter and aim for double-digit growth for the whole year of 2026, the economy must make great efforts in the following quarters with growth above 10.5%, specifically: Q2: GDP estimated at 10.5%; Q3: GDP estimated at 10.6%; Q4: GDP estimated at 10.74%.

Under this scenario, the General Statistics Office expects growth based on accelerating exports, a strong recovery in domestic purchasing power, and the increasingly significant contributions of new economic sectors such as semiconductor technology and the green economy. Simultaneously, it is necessary to thoroughly remove legal barriers, accelerate the disbursement of public investment capital, and effectively facilitate the flow of private investment. Furthermore, the early end of the Middle East conflict and the stabilization of oil prices are also necessary conditions to ensure that economic growth can approach the set target.

"Viet Nam is likely to remain one of Asia's fastest-growing economies in the coming years, second only to India." This was the assessment of S&P Global Ratings at a conference held on April 2nd in Hanoi. Notably, S&P Global Ratings' assessment comes amidst a global economic landscape simultaneously impacted by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, supply chain disruptions, and rising energy costs. In such a challenging environment, Viet Nam's continued high growth rate demonstrates significant improvements in its macroeconomic fundamentals and the economy's resilience.

While maintaining a positive outlook on the Viet Namese economy, international organizations also acknowledge the increasingly prominent role of the high-tech manufacturing and export sector. Viet Nam is benefiting from the restructuring of global supply chains, as many international businesses shift production to diversify their operations. As a result, the export structure is shifting towards an increased proportion of electronic products and technological equipment, thereby enhancing added value and competitiveness.

Beyond exports, domestic growth drivers are also becoming more balanced. According to HSBC, Viet Nam's advantage lies not only in its competitive costs but also in its deep integration into regional supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor and electronics sectors. Continuing to strengthen its position in the global value chain, while proactively developing scenarios to address trade risks, will be key to maintaining growth momentum in the medium term.

Another noteworthy aspect is the potential to improve the "quality of growth" in the coming period. Beyond just speed, the economy is shifting towards a greater reliance on productivity, innovation, and added value. This is demonstrated by the increasingly selective attraction of FDI, focusing on high-tech sectors, clean energy, and smart manufacturing, rather than labor-intensive industries as before.

In addition, infrastructure development – especially transportation, logistics, and energy infrastructure – is being accelerated and is seen as a crucial "lever" for medium- and long-term growth.

Furthermore, a positive point highlighted by many international organizations is that Viet Nam still has relatively large policy space. Flexible coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is considered a key factor in maintaining economic stability amidst volatility. Controlling inflation, maintaining a stable exchange rate, and ensuring credit flows into the production and business sectors will be fundamental to strengthening market and investor confidence.

According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, Director of the Statistics Department (Ministry of Finance), if the growth drivers are strongly and synchronously activated in the remaining quarters, there is still a basis to adhere to the set targets. The remaining issue is the level of decisiveness in implementation and the ability to translate determination into concrete results in each quarter, each industry, and each sector.

Source: Vietnam.vn 

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