Amidst Indian shrimp businesses proactively reallocating their markets, prioritizing the EU market over over over-reliance on the US, Viet Nam's seafood industry faces the urgent need to change its growth model to maintain its global market share.

India is proactively reallocating its market.

Amidst the volatile global seafood trade, India's shrimp industry recorded an impressive year of growth. In the first 11 months of 2025, the country exported nearly 734,600 tons of shrimp, valued at approximately US$5.23 billion, representing increases of 10% in volume and 17% in value compared to the same period last year. In October and November alone, export volumes remained above 75,000 tons per month, continuing positive growth.

Ms. Kim Thu, a shrimp market expert at the Viet Nam Association of Seafood Processing and Export (VASEP), commented that this development shows that tariff measures in the US have not reduced overall demand for Indian shrimp, but mainly caused trade flows to shift to other markets.

While exports to the US declined due to high tariffs, the EU emerged as a bright spot. In the first 11 months of 2025, Indian shrimp exports to the EU reached nearly 107,650 tons, a 38% increase, the strongest growth among major markets. During the same period, China imported over 141,000 tons, a 10% increase.

This shift shows that Indian businesses are proactively reallocating their markets instead of relying too heavily on the US.

The biggest turning point came when India and the European Union (EU) finalized negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on January 27, 2026, paving the way for tariff reductions on a wide range of goods, including seafood.

According to European importers, once the agreement comes into effect, import tariffs on Indian shrimp could be significantly reduced, making prices considerably more competitive than before, when tariffs were quite high. This is expected to give Indian shrimp a significant advantage over competing suppliers such as Ecuador and Viet Nam.

Although further ratification is still needed, the FTA has already brought "market sentiment" benefits, encouraging businesses to sign long-term contracts, invest in farming areas, and expand capacity for exports to the EU starting now.

Alongside the EU, US-India trade relations are also showing positive signs as US retaliatory tariffs on Indian goods have been reduced from 25% to around 18%.

However, Indian shrimp are still subject to anti-dumping and countervailing duties, meaning that actual costs have not decreased as significantly as expected.

"This means the US may see some recovery in demand, but it's unlikely to return to its position as an absolutely dominant market. The EU is likely to continue to be a strategic pillar for India in the coming years," the expert observed.

Based on these developments, according to Ms. Kim Thu, Indian businesses' strategies may be gradually taking shape in three directions. First, diversifying markets, reducing dependence on the US, and prioritizing the EU and Asia. Second, maintaining price advantages through large-volume raw material products. Third, leveraging FTAs ​​to sign long-term contracts and strengthen supply chains in Europe. This approach helps India both secure production and reduce policy risks.

Vietnamese shrimp faces increasing competitive pressure.

According to expert analysis, for Viet Nam, India's changes create direct competitive pressure, especially in the EU – a market traditionally advantageous thanks to the EVFTA.

If Indian shrimp were to enjoy equivalent or lower tariffs, their price advantage would become apparent due to large-scale farming and low costs. This would then lead to more intense competition in the raw shrimp and general product segments within the EU.

However, Viet Nam still has advantages in the areas of deep processing, value-added products, high quality standards, traceability, and sustainability.

With India increasing its presence in the EU and gradually regaining market share in the US thanks to new trade agreements, direct competition on price or production volume will become more difficult for Vietnamese shrimp businesses. Instead, the appropriate direction is to increase the proportion of deeply processed products, reduce dependence on frozen raw shrimp, maximize the tariff advantages from the EVFTA and stable trade relations with the EU, and expand into markets outside the EU such as Japan, South Korea, and the CPTPP bloc.

Furthermore, significant investment in sustainability standards, ESG, traceability, and "green" certifications will become a strategic differentiating factor.

"The story of Indian shrimp in the 2025-2026 period demonstrates the ability to adapt quickly to policy changes: losing an advantage in one market but immediately shifting to another, while simultaneously leveraging FTAs ​​to prepare for a new growth cycle."

For Viet Nam's shrimp exports, this is both a challenge and a reminder to upgrade the growth model. In the coming period, the competitive advantage of the shrimp industry will no longer lie in scale or low costs, but in added value, brand, and sustainable quality – factors that determine the long-term position of Vietnamese shrimp in the world market," the expert assessed.

Source: Vietnamese Business

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