Rice exports in early 2026 face a double challenge in terms of both market and procurement and storage capacity as the winter-spring crop is approaching.

Restructuring from rice production to trade is an inevitable direction, but the participation of businesses alone is not enough; it requires coordination from the state and support from credit institutions.

Exports remain stable.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment , in 2025 Viet Nam will export 7.9 million tons of rice, with a value of US$4.02 billion, a decrease of 13.1% in volume and 29.1% in value compared to the previous year. Mr. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Viet Nam Food Association (VFA), assessed that, in the context of falling world rice prices and difficulties in exports for most countries, Viet Nam's rice export value still exceeding US$4 billion is a remarkable achievement. Despite the decrease in export value compared to 2024, Viet Nam has surpassed Thailand to become the world's second-largest rice exporter, after India.

Notably, while the average export price of white rice worldwide is only between 350 and 400 USD/ton, the average export price of Vietnamese rice has reached 510 USD/ton. This is the result of the shift from white rice to fragrant and specialty rice, which has increased the competitiveness of Vietnamese rice.

However, Mr. Do Ha Nam also pointed out that Viet Nam's biggest limitation is its concentration of exports to a single market, specifically with 40-50% of its rice exports going to the Philippines. Therefore, when this market experiences fluctuations, such as the decision to halt imports in 2025, businesses immediately find themselves in a passive position.

According to Mr. Do Ha Nam, after a period of active discussions, the Philippines has reopened its doors to rice imports. However, the Philippine government has implemented a monthly import quota system, slowing down the market's pace. This piecemeal quota allocation prevents businesses from proactively planning their exports, creating a chain reaction of pressure on procurement, rice prices, and farmers' incomes, especially during the peak harvest season of the Winter-Spring crop.

Furthermore, businesses face significant obstacles in the payment process for rice purchases. According to current regulations, transactions exceeding 5 million VND must be made via bank transfer to be eligible for tax deductions, while in reality, the rice procurement chain still primarily relies on traders going directly to individual households. Businesses cannot directly purchase from farmers, but they are also not allowed to pay traders in cash. Meanwhile, many farmers, especially in remote areas, lack bank accounts or have difficulty accessing ATMs, leading them to prefer selling their rice only to cash buyers. This situation makes it difficult to sell rice, resulting in low prices, while farmers' input costs continue to rise.

Improve product quality

The Chairman of the Viet Nam Food Association (VFA) stated that the fundamental direction for Viet Nam's rice industry is to continue shifting strongly towards the production of high-quality rice, focusing on markets with high living standards and a willingness to pay higher prices. Forecasting continued volatility in the rice market in 2026, increasing the production of fragrant and specialty rice is the right direction, but the issues of output and capital flow need to be addressed comprehensively.

To ensure timely procurement of all rice during the Winter-Spring crop season, the Viet Nam Food Association (VFA) recommends that banks flexibly increase credit limits for businesses purchasing rice for temporary storage. Due to the seasonal nature of the crop, businesses need a large amount of capital during the peak harvest season, but this need will decrease sharply afterward. With sufficient resources for temporary storage, businesses can sell their goods according to market trends, avoiding price pressure from importers during the peak harvest period. Simultaneously, the VFA encourages businesses to increase dry rice storage, a method that can ensure rice quality for six months to a year, given that many businesses have already invested in silo storage systems and specialized packaging.

The association also suggested that the government strengthen national stockpiles to support rice prices when market prices are low, while the quality of the winter-spring rice crop is considered very good. At the same time, it is necessary to further promote government-to-government (G2G) contracts. Recently, Viet Nam has signed several G2G contracts with Singapore and Senegal; the VFA has authorized Vinafood 1 and Vinafood 2 to implement them and hopes these contracts will be executed soon. Regarding traditional markets such as Iraq and Syria, where Thailand currently holds a dominant position, the VFA suggested that Vietnamese representative agencies abroad continue to connect to restore and expand the market share of Vietnamese rice.

Mr. Huynh Van Thon, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Loc Troi Group Joint Stock Company, shared that Vietnamese rice production has been moving in the right direction by promoting the restructuring of rice varieties towards high-quality types and applying new techniques to cultivation. Thanks to this, Viet Nam is confident in its ability to produce rice that meets the requirements of even the most demanding customers and countries. A prime example is Vietnamese Jasmine rice, which has successfully penetrated the markets of Japan and South Korea despite facing numerous barriers.

In Japan alone, imported rice is subject to very high taxes but still enjoys strong sales in a short period, indicating significant actual demand. The Japanese market can consume rice priced up to $8,000 per ton. Coupled with the growing Vietnamese community in Japan and the interest of Japanese businesses in Viet Nam's one million-hectare project for cultivating high-quality, low-emission rice, there is still considerable room to increase the market share of high-quality rice in Japan. Furthermore, Viet Nam's ST25 rice is also highly sought after in many markets, with insufficient supply to meet demand.

However, the organization of the rice supply chain still faces a "bottleneck" in terms of capital flow. Banks always have money, but businesses and farmers still lack capital for production and procurement. Farmers need capital to invest in seeds, fertilizers, and mechanized equipment; meanwhile, businesses need large amounts of capital in a short time to purchase during the harvest season.

According to Mr. Huynh Van Thon, capital flow can only be unlocked when banks participate in the rice production and consumption chain as a genuine member and link, not just as partners or supporting units. This requires the State to have specific mechanisms that are suitable for the seasonal production and procurement conditions of rice.

Representatives from the Viet Nam Agricultural and Rural Development Bank (Agribank) stated that, as a state-owned commercial bank playing a leading role in investing in agriculture, farmers, and rural areas, Agribank has proactively signed and implemented numerous cooperation programs with the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment to concretize the objectives of the Sustainable Development Project for one million hectares of high-quality, low-emission rice cultivation associated with green growth in the Mekong Delta.

Agribank has implemented a loan program for the production, processing, and consumption of high-quality, low-emission rice in the Mekong Delta region, with a scale of up to 30,000 billion VND. Accordingly, businesses, cooperatives, and households participating in the supply chain benefit from preferential credit policies, with interest rates 1-1.5% lower per year than usual, and unsecured loans up to 80% of the value of the linked project. This is considered an important leverage to promote the formation of sustainable rice value chains and enhance the competitiveness of Vietnamese rice.

Mr. Phung Duc Tien, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment, informed that the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment will work with banks on a plan to increase outstanding loans for the agricultural sector to ensure timely rice procurement. Businesses also need to proactively develop plans for using capital for each crop season. Regarding the market, with 85% of the cultivated area being high-quality rice, Vietnamese rice has a competitive advantage in many regions. Viet Nam also has many specialty rice varieties favored by high-end markets. However, industry associations and export businesses need to focus on building brands for Vietnamese rice, increasing recognition and economic value for the entire chain. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment will coordinate with the Ministry of Industry and Trade to continue promoting the Vietnamese rice brand globally.

Source: Tin Tuc News

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