In 2026, experts suggest that if businesses continue to diversify into the CPTPP, EU, and Middle East markets while prioritizing value-added products, Viet Nam’s shrimp industry can still maintain growth despite a challenging global landscape.

With sustained growth momentum over the first 11 months of the year, Viet Nam’s shrimp export turnover for the full year 2025 is projected to reach $4.6 billion, marking an all-time historic high.

According to data from Viet Nam Customs, cumulative shrimp exports from the beginning of the year through November 2025 reached $4.3 billion, a 21% increase compared to the same period last year.

The performance over the past 11 months reflects a clear recovery in global consumer demand, particularly for processed shrimp and premium segments. In a context where many other industries still face significant hurdles, Viet Nam’s shrimp industry has demonstrated a remarkable ability to adapt quickly to market fluctuations, trade policies, and shifting consumer trends.

Mainland China and Hong Kong (China) remain the largest destinations for Vietnamese shrimp. In the first 11 months of 2025, export turnover to these markets reached $1.2 billion, accounting for more than 28% of Viet Nam's total shrimp exports and surging by 59% year-on-year.

However, competition in these markets is intensifying. While Ecuador and India maintain an edge in the low-cost segment, Thailand and Viet Nam are competing directly in the premium and processed product categories. Furthermore, stringent requirements regarding traceability, border controls, and changes in Chinese customs policies continue to pose significant challenges for Vietnamese exporters.

The CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) bloc remains a bright spot, with export turnover reaching $1.2 billion in the first 11 months, a 32% increase. Japan maintains its role as a key market with $535 million, up 13%, driven largely by processed products destined for retail channels. Steady growth in Australia, the UK, and Canada has helped the CPTPP region become a vital "buffer" for the industry amidst high volatility in the US and EU markets.

In the first 11 months of 2025, shrimp exports to the US reached $754 million, a 7% year-on-year increase. However, November figures saw a 7% dip to $52 million, attributed to the impact of trade defense measures.

Conversely, the EU market has recorded a significant recovery. Turnover reached $540 million in the first 11 months, up 21% over the same period last year, with Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands leading the growth.

The Viet Nam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) estimates that total shrimp exports for 2025 will certainly surpass $4.5 billion and could reach the $4.6 billion milestone—the highest level ever recorded.

Looking toward 2026, the outlook is more cautious due to tariff pressures from the US, fierce competition in China, and high domestic production costs. Nevertheless, experts suggest that if businesses continue to diversify into the CPTPP, EU, and Middle East markets while prioritizing value-added products, Viet Nam’s shrimp industry can still maintain growth despite a challenging global landscape.

Source: VnEconomy

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