2025 marks the 30th anniversary of the normalization of relations between Viet Nam and the United States and the 25th anniversary of the entry into force of the Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). Over three decades, economic and trade relations have become a central pillar, playing a key role in the overall bilateral relationship.

From a trade volume of less than $500 million in the early 1990s, bilateral trade has increased nearly 300 times, making the US Viet Nam's largest export market and Viet Nam one of the US's most important trading partners in Asia.

However, 2025 reveals an increasingly clear reality: bilateral trade relations are entering a period of adjustment. The Trump administration's "America First" agenda, with economic goals of reducing the trade deficit and bringing key manufacturing back to the US through reciprocal tariffs, has impacted all countries worldwide, including Viet Nam.

In addition, the administration of President Donald Trump also initiated investigations into a series of trade defense cases with expanded scope and scale, complex procedures for exporters worldwide in general and Viet Nam in particular, and expanded the scope of tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

Despite global economic fluctuations, Viet Nam-US trade is expected to maintain impressive growth in 2025. According to the latest US figures, Viet Nam's exports are projected to reach $140 billion in the first nine months of 2025, compared to $136 billion for the whole of 2024.

Data from the Viet Nam Customs Department shows that the US continues to be the biggest driver of Viet Nam's exports. In the first 11 months of 2025, export turnover to this market reached US$138.61 billion, an increase of 27.2% and contributing nearly 50% of the country's overall export growth.

The US ranks 11th among investors in Viet Nam with 1,501 projects and a total registered capital of approximately US$12.3 billion. In 2025, the US is expected to have 108 new investment projects in Viet Nam with a total registered capital of approximately US$610.6 million, ranking 11th. Cumulatively, as of October 31, 2025, Viet Nam will have a total of 266 investment projects in the US with a total registered capital of approximately US$1.4 billion.

According to Mr. Do Ngoc Hung, Head of the Viet Nam Trade Office in the US, the Viet Nam-US trade structure is clearly complementary. Viet Nam mainly exports processed industrial products, consumer goods, and agricultural and aquatic products, while imports from the US focus on machinery, high-tech equipment, raw materials, agricultural products, and aerospace products.

Viet Nam's exports to the US in 2025 will continue to rely on key product groups such as textiles, footwear, wood products, electronics, machinery, and agricultural products. However, high growth also comes with increasing pressure. The textile and footwear industries are facing significant pressure from labor, environmental, and carbon emission requirements. The wood and furniture industries face strict scrutiny regarding the origin of raw materials, while the seafood industry is challenged by regulations protecting the marine ecosystem.

It can be said that the US market is entering a period of consolidation. Experience shows that rapid growth is accompanied by challenges, especially from the third quarter of 2025 onwards, when the impact of retaliatory tariffs begins to be more clearly reflected in the costs, purchasing power, and inventories of US importers.

This indicates that bilateral trade relations are entering a period of profound adjustment, aiming for more stable, balanced, and sustainable development, adhering to multilateral and multi-party commitments within various frameworks. Businesses that meet the standards well will continue to expand their market share, while those that are slow to adapt will gradually be eliminated from the game. This is both a challenge and a driving force for improving the quality of Viet Nam's export growth.

Towards a new breakthrough in bilateral trade.

One of the factors strongly influencing Viet Nam-US trade relations in 2025 is President Donald Trump's tariff policy. The continued application and expansion of retaliatory tariffs by the US, along with increased trade defense investigations, has created a highly uncertain business environment for enterprises in both countries.

However, these measures are forcing both sides to adjust their approaches. Vietnamese businesses are compelled to pay more attention to rules of origin, supply chain transparency, and compliance with international standards. On the US side, internal debates show that tariffs not only create difficulties for partners but also directly impact importing businesses and consumers through higher prices.

Viet Nam is among the six countries prioritized by the US for negotiations out of more than 100 economies after President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs, and has so far undergone five rounds of negotiations. The fifth round of direct negotiations on the Reciprocal Trade Agreement between Viet Nam and the US, held in mid-November 2025 in Washington D.C., recorded significant progress following a series of high-level and technical exchanges between the two sides.

At the meeting, the US side highly appreciated the agreement between the two countries on the Joint Statement on the Framework for a Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade Agreement, a document considered an important foundation for promoting the negotiation process. The US side acknowledged Viet Nam's system of solutions and approach to the US proposals, and responded positively to some of Viet Nam's suggestions. On the Vietnamese side, the Ministry of Industry and Trade affirmed its determination to build a balanced and sustainable economic and trade relationship with the US, and also provided information on many measures Viet Nam has proactively implemented to strengthen bilateral trade.

To date, the negotiating teams have made significant progress in many areas such as services, digital trade, agriculture, technical barriers to trade (TBT), and sanitary and phytosanitary standards (SPS). The gap between the two sides on the remaining issues has also narrowed, creating an important basis for the early completion of the reciprocal trade agreement.

Adjust to go further.

Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook for Viet Nam-US trade is considered positive but also challenging. Instability in US trade policy, combined with the risk of a Supreme Court ruling unfavorable to the Trump administration's retaliatory tariffs, creates a risky environment for both US businesses and their international partners, making long-term planning difficult.

Furthermore, rising tariff costs are eroding profit margins, forcing many American businesses to pass the burden on to consumers, thereby reducing import demand. In addition, inflation and high interest rates continue to impact the purchasing power of Americans, especially for non-essential goods such as textiles, footwear, and furniture, in which Viet Nam has a competitive advantage. Increasingly stringent technical, environmental, and labor barriers require Vietnamese businesses to invest more in compliance and supply chain upgrades.

According to Mr. Do Ngoc Hung, the US market is entering a period of significant restructuring under the stable trade development strategy set forth by the current administration, combined with the midterm elections and a campaign to help consumers access affordable prices. However, if Vietnamese businesses maintain their adaptability, from raising transparency standards for raw materials to investing in green production, many sectors such as electronics, machinery, footwear, electrical cables, toys, and high-quality agricultural and aquatic products can continue to maintain their growth momentum.

Mr. Do Ngoc Hung commented that export businesses need to continue shifting their focus from rapid growth to sustainable growth, minimizing risks related to trade defense, increasing added value and technological content in export products, and seeking new growth drivers by leveraging the new generation of FTAs ​​that Viet Nam has signed with partners, avoiding dependence on any single market.

Mr. Do Ngoc Hung suggested that relevant authorities should continue to create favorable conditions and support Vietnamese businesses in participating in trade and investment promotion activities in the US, while also attending business conferences and forums at the invitation of the US side, demonstrating a reciprocal goodwill in inviting US business delegations to Viet Nam. In addition, businesses and industry associations need to coordinate closely with Vietnamese representative agencies in the US to verify business information to avoid unfortunate incidents or events.

Source:Tin Tuc News

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