Trade with the US is growing, but Vietnam is facing a series of major challenges related to trade surpluses, with the risk of increased import tax avoidance.

Identify the challenges

After the 2024 US presidential election, the US-Western trade relationship faces challenges and opportunities for expansion in the coming years. In particular, Vietnam is opposing three regimes: surplus products growing in both rate and speed; the US has not yet identified Vietnam as a base economic school; With a large economic openness, participating in many bilateral and multilateral trade associations, Vietnam is the gateway for third-country goods to avoid US import taxes.

The above formulas, although not identified to meet the time to adjust in the direction of minimizing the impact, will make the emergence of problems more difficult for exported goods, the risk of affecting production. Accordingly, the search for solutions to reduce the items of trade, the goal of achieving the truth goes to the corresponding tariff schedule, as well as solving the problems of transit and the difficulties of origin appear Origin are real, complex and likely to occur.

At the online discussion: Assessment of US trade policy affecting Vietnam's commercialization organized by the Department of European - American Markets ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ) recently held here, Dr. Le Huy Khoi, Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategy and Policy Research of Industry and Trade, said that many businesses and the international community have different forecasts about the new trade policy under President Trump, but above all, those will be priority policies aimed at ensuring core interests for the US as a protector of domestic products, avoiding too much dependence on the outside, and attracting investment for domestic products.

In the first 11 months of 2024, two-way trade between Vietnam and the US reached nearly 123 billion USD, an increase of nearly 13 billion USD, so it will be implemented throughout the year. The US continues to be Vietnam's largest export market with a turnover of 108.9 billion USD, up 23.9%; imports from the US reached 13.5 billion USD, up 7.3%; Vietnam had a production surplus of 95.4 billion USD, up 26.7% over the same period last year.

Vietnam's main export products to the US are diverse, from agricultural products (coffee, cashew nuts, pepper, pepper), seafood (shrimp, basa fish) and garments, footwear, electronic components, wood and wood products..., playing an important role in the global supply chain.

According to Dr. Khoi, in the near future, processing and manufacturing industries such as textiles, footwear, electronics, machinery and equipment with large export turnover to the US need to pay attention to trade defense measures. Agricultural products, which are essential consumer goods from Vietnam to the US, will not be affected much in the short term.

“Under President Donald Trump 2.0, the US could continue to apply protectionist measures such as import controls, tariffs and strengthening labor and environmental standards to protect domestically produced products and reduce the dependence of the entire supply chain on China,” Virginia Foote, President and CEO of Bay Global Strategies, advised.

Diversify markets, increase imports from the US

Vietnam's import and export in 2025 is forecast to continue to grow, as demand in many major markets increases, including the US, while risks in many markets (EU, Japan) decrease... These factors positively affect Vietnam's trade with the world .

However, the risks of trade restriction policies and tariff barriers are observed around, especially the export scale in 2025 is forecast to increase, far exceeding the 400 billion USD mark (the General Department of Customs calculates that the import and export for the whole year of 2024 will reach 782.33 billion USD).

To minimize risks, Dr. Le Huy Khoi emphasized that Vietnam needs to promote economic innovation, diversify export markets and improve competitiveness. Enterprises should proactively improve technology, comply with international standards and develop long-term strategies to meet the requirements of the US market. Major export industries to the US must proactively regulate to limit the "scrutiny" regime.

According to Mr. Thanh Diep Kiet, Vice President of the Vietnam Leather, Footwear and Handbag Association (Lefaso), exports to the US have continuously used over 40% of Vietnam's total footwear and handbag exports for many years. Through analysis, the problem at the national scale is to reduce the number of women between the two sides to ensure fair trade, in accordance with the goals of the new US administration, because Vietnam currently has commercial football with this field.

The solution, Mr. Kiet proposed, on the Government's side , to reduce the trade shadow, could be to reduce exports or increase imports. However, reducing exports is not feasible, because it will affect economic growth, but it is necessary to control exports in a real way, avoiding the situation of modernizing the origin of goods. "Regarding imports, in my opinion, we should find a source from the US, which is the way to solve the trade problem with this market," Mr. Kiet opened.

Source: Vietnam.vn
 

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