Southeast Asian domestic markets are about to be hit by a tsunami of cheap Chinese goods, unable to enter the United States if US President Donald Trump follows through on his promise of 60 per cent tariffs on all Chinese imports.

The two most important people in ASEAN right now can’t be accused of not understanding the crucial function that the group plays as a platform for collective middle-power diplomacy. Speaking at a media conference after his meeting with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in Langkawi last week, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto declared that ‘only via unity among the ASEAN countries, only with good cooperation between us, will our voices be heard, will we be given consideration by powers far bigger than us’.

China is facing a repeat of the tensions and uncertainty from the first presidency of Donald Trump, only with a weaker economy that’s even more reliant on exports than it was during the first trade war with the US.

In 2024, significant developments in US politics included an assassination attempt on US President-elect Donald Trump, the failure of US President Joe Biden's campaign and the US Supreme Court ruling exempting presidents' official actions from prosecution. As Trump's presence grows in 2025, the action on US–China relations will intensify, as the possibility of a second trade war looms, the outcome of which will depend not only on the dynamics among Trump's key advisers but how China responds.

US President Joe Biden's outgoing administration is finalising rules on Tuesday that will effectively bar nearly all Chinese cars and trucks from the US market, as part of a crackdown on vehicle software and hardware from China.

The Biden administration has announced it is raising tariffs on solar wafers, polysilicon and some tungsten products from China to protect U.S. clean energy businesses

The US–China relationship showed signs of fragility in 2024, despite initial optimism following a stabilising summit in November 2023, with both countries maintaining largely confrontational postures and the Biden administration failing to make significant efforts to improve relations. The re-election of Donald Trump as US president will likely further increase tensions due to fears of increased tariffs, reduced diplomatic communication and the risk of military conflict. But the dire consequences of any potential confrontation could motivate both countries and the global community to oppose further escalation.

Trump’s punitive tariffs would put Brussels under pressure to cut a defensive deal to fend off a glut of Chinese exports.

Vietnam’s support for president-elect Donald Trump may be tempered by the realities of his ‘America First’ policies, which prioritise US interests and often undermine multilateral agreements. While many Vietnamese view Trump as a leader who can bolster regional stability, his focus on reducing trade imbalances could lead to tariffs and disrupt Vietnam’s exports to the United States. Trump’s transactional foreign policy approach may also challenge Vietnam’s strategic partnership with the United States, particularly in the face of US–China competition.

US Department of Commerce imposes preliminary anti-dumping duties on solar cells and modules from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.