The costs of the Sino-American trade war

The initial two-year segment of the “phase one” trade deal between America and China comes to an end on December 31st. Neither country is in a mood to mark the occasion. Mutual antagonism is as fierce as ever; a new American law banning goods made with forced labour in Xinjiang is the latest flashpoint. Still, it is a good moment to take stock of the economic outcomes of the Sino-American trade war. The verdict is unremittingly negative for both countries—with one important exception.