In the first five months of the year, the rice industry brought in a record export turnover of $1.9 billion, up 41.6% over the same period last year. Meanwhile, the export price of rice also increased to a 2-year high, surpassing both Thailand and India.

Rice exports hit a record high, prices surpassing Thailand and India

According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, last May, rice export of our country reached 724,609 tons, worth 390.6 million USD, down 30.6% in volume and 28.4% in value compared to the record-high figure achieved in April, but still up 2.2% in volume and 12.8% in value over the same period last year.

Accumulated to the end of May, the export of this product reached 3.6 million tons, with a turnover of 1.92 billion USD, up 30.8% in volume and 41.6% in value over the same period. the period in 2022. This is also the highest number recorded by the rice industry in the first 5 months of the year so far.

It is known that the top 5 leading rice exporters in Vietnam today are Thanh Tin Trading & Service Company Limited, Intimex Group Joint Stock Company, Northern Food Corporation, and Southern Food Corporation. Nam – Joint Stock Company and Gia International Joint Stock Company.

Increased demand from the international market pushed Vietnam's export rice price in May to an average of $539/ton, up 3.1% month-on-month and the highest level since July 2021. Generally, in the first 5 months of the year, the price of rice for export reached an average of 529 USD/ton, up 8.3% over the same period.

Notably, as of mid-June, the price of Vietnam's 5% broken rice offered for sale on the international market has risen to $498/ton, the highest level in more than two years and an increase of $3-8/ton. compared to the previous weeks. This price is also higher than the selling price of 490 - 495 USD/ton for the same product from Thailand and 453 USD/ton in India.

Regarding the consumption market, in the first 5 months of this year in general, rice exports to most of the main markets increased compared to the same period last year.

Which, the Philippines ranked first in our country's rice export market in the past 5 months with a volume of 1.53 million tons, worth $ 772.4 million, up 20.7% in volume and up 31.3% compared to the same period last year. This market accounts for 42.3% of the total volume of rice exports in our country.

China ranked second with 632,469 tons, up 62.8% in volume and 79.2% over the same period, accounting for 17.5% of the country's rice export market share.

Notably, Indonesia suddenly rose to the No. 3 position in terms of our country's rice export market in the first 5 months of 2023 with a volume of 369,032 tons, up 15 times (1,498%) over the same period last year.

In addition, rice exports to some markets increased very strongly such as Taiwan up 142.3%, Senegal up 1.147%, Chile up 4.120%, and Turkey up 15,972%...

Some markets in the EU also grew at triple digits such as Poland (+117.4%), Belgium (+164.9%), and Spain (+307.6%).

Meanwhile, white rice is still the most exported variety in the past 5 months with a volume of about 2 million tons, accounting for 57% of the structure of exported rice.

Next is fragrant rice (Jasmine, DT8, KDM, ST24, ST25...) with about 1 million tons, accounting for 27.3% of the proportion; Sticky rice reached 470 thousand tons and accounted for 12.8% proportion. The rest is Japanese rice and the group of brown rice, micronutrient rice...

Positive outlook for the second half of the year

In the context that the supply from the winter-spring crop has dried up, Vietnam's rice exports are likely to slow down until the summer-autumn rice harvest season.

However, in general, the outlook for the rice industry is still considered to be relatively positive shortly because output in many producing countries in Asia is at risk of falling due to the impact of El Nino. This will boost the demand for reserves and the price of rice in the international market.

In the first week of June 2023, the rainfall in India recorded was 57% lower than the multi-year average, only 9.9 mm instead of the average of 23.1 mm. El Nino will make the rainy season come late, end early, and receive less than average rainfall. This affects quite a lot of the agricultural production of India, where most of the production area depends on natural water in the rainy season.

In Thailand, the Kasikorn Research Center (KRC) estimates Thailand's rice production this year to fall by about 6%, to 25.1-25.6 million tons.

Fear of El Nino also caused many countries such as the Philippines, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and African countries to boost rice stocks.

Recently, Padiberas Nasional Berhad Company (Bernas), the exclusive rice importer of Malaysia, announced that it will import an additional 150,000 tons of rice to ensure domestic supply because demand this year is expected to be higher than last year.

Earlier, at the end of March, the Indonesian Ministry of Commerce said that the country will import 2 million tons of rice for the national reserve in 2023, of which 500,000 tons will be made as soon as possible. The national reserve of imported rice will be used in the program to stabilize rice prices, support rice for 21.53 million poor households and use it for other purposes. Vietnam is currently the second largest rice export market for this country after Thailand, accounting for more than 40% of the market share.

In the Philippines, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for the country's rice imports to a record 3.9 million tonnes this year from 3.7 million tonnes in the previous forecast. Based on data from the Philippine Department of Plant Industry (BPI), as of May 25, the Philippines imported 1.6 million tons of rice, of which 87.5% or 1.4 million tons were imported from Vietnam.

In addition to the above markets, China is also increasing its imports of Vietnamese rice after reopening its economy earlier this year.

Rice exports to the European market, especially high-quality rice, are also showing positive results. In February this year, for the first time, a shipment of 15 tons of organic rice from farmers in Quang Tri province was exported to the European market. Notably, the selling price of organic rice to the European market is up to 1,500-1,800 USD/ton, 2-3 times higher than the price of regular rice.

Recently, USDA raised its forecast for Vietnam's rice exports in 2023 to 7.2 million tons, up from 7.05 million tons in 2022. Vietnam is forecast to continue to be the third largest rice exporter—the world after Thailand and India.

Previously, the Ministry of Industry and Trade expected that rice exports in 2023 could reach about 7 million tons with a turnover of 4 billion USD. Although the volume is lower than in 2022 (7.13 million tons), the turnover is much higher (3.45 billion USD).

Experts in the rice industry said that the price of this food item can remain high in the long term because world demand has exceeded supply, and global rice inventories have continuously decreased in recent times. recently.

According to the USDA, global rice stocks are expected to decline by 8.9 million tons to 173.5 million tons in the 2022-2023 season and continue to decline for the third consecutive year to just 170.2 million tons in the 2023-23 season.

Source: Vietdata

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